Author Topic: The next global economic crisis  (Read 883 times)

caballero

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The next global economic crisis
« on: September 06, 2019, 08:25:21 AM »
You may google it and will get dozens of results. As I have read, there is a high probability that it will come in 2020. Specially because it seems that many high amounts of loans in the world overwome this year.

The background for this new crisis is much worst that in 2008. In that year the level of debt of most developed countries was very low, nevertheless now, having paid attention to the Keynesianists, many of them are above or near 100% of GDP, no room for maneuver. Maybe one day the Keynesianists will apologize.


What more? The EU is currently caught with tweezers. Eventually, this would produce finally its rupture, which would further aggravate the crisis.

During these last years of apparent economic improvement, these imbalances have not been fixed, on the contrary, they have deepened and people have been persuaded to invest in what they cannot afford.

If crises tend to cause social revolts, this can be even worse with a society atomized by mass immigration, with new minorities fighting for their rights.

On the other hand, we are at the beginning of the 4th industrial revolution. Circular economy, AI, etc. There is a strong tendency to rent your car while not using it, therefore, less need to buy a new one. AI is expected to reach human intelligence in a few years, which implies autonomous cars, without the need for a human driver, mechanical work done by robots and not by humans. Look what these 3d printer can do. All this derives in surplus of human labor. Aggravated with the next crisis.

Maybe we are in the worst position to face a new world economic crisis.

Economic crises are an advantageous state for those with a lot of money, because the less fortunate are forced to sell much cheaper, which is taken advantage of by those. Perhaps Keynesianism was a great invention for the most powerful.
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felipe

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2019, 10:06:35 AM »
I think all the economic system actually get feed with all sort of crisis, ups and downs, etc. It has to die or kill some of their business to keep growing. The actual president of chile (piñera) has been a business men before, he declared bankrupt more than once and even he escaped to the u.s leaving huge debts behind. Even trump was in bankrupt more than once before too. So there's nothing new. You know, we need a revolution...less fortunates have actually nothing to lose... :wink2:  :biggrin:
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jj2007

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2019, 05:04:41 PM »
That's all very interesting, of course (btw Japan's debt is 236% of GDP, one meter above Greece). But what has Keynes to do with that? He is dead and cannot defend himself, so I'll do it for him: He never said to make debt all the time. He said you should debt-finance investments in a recession, and cut down the debt in a boom. It's definitely not his fault that politicians have understood only the first half of that.

hutch--

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2019, 05:15:28 PM »
Ever climbing national debt kisses the arse of global finance who get control of different country's economy by debt bondage. The French had the right idea, cut their heads off !
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caballero

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2019, 08:37:11 PM »
The easy thing would be blaming politicians and we would have the problem limited. However, these are a reflection of society, unfortunately. As politics are intended today, political parties are companies in a zero-sum game system. The goal is to get the power to maximize their profits through taxes. For this it is necessary to obtain the maximum number of votes to be able to govern. And there is the key. If you tell the people that we are spending too much and that expenses have to be reviewed, which will mean reducing all kinds of subsidies and spending less, people will automatically look towards another political option that will say that everything is fine and that we can continue spending even plus. Therefore, this last political option will be the winner of the zero-sum game.

Politicians do not charge as in the free market: based on results or on average salaries of the economic environment in which they operate. They have the power to place their salary and the monopoly of force to do so. As there is no independent institution that oversees its management and, therefore, its salary, they are simply an element of the zero-sum game.
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jj2007

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2019, 09:00:30 PM »
Ever climbing national debt kisses the arse of global finance who get control of different country's economy by debt bondage. The French had the right idea, cut their heads off !

Brilliant! Who will lend you money afterwards?

hutch--

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2019, 09:46:38 PM »
 :biggrin:

> Brilliant! Who will lend you money afterwards?

I think you would have to find their printing press so you can do what they already do, invent money out of thin air.
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K_F

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2019, 05:01:59 AM »
See, nothing is complicated.  :biggrin:
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xanatose

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2019, 11:51:50 PM »
Money is supposed to be the unit of measurement of wealth. Wealth being recognized control of resources.
When you buy a kilogram you do not expect 1/4 of a kilogram because the kilogram has changed with respect to what you are buying. Is called fraud.
When a currency is pegged to something valuable, it usually the same measurement over time. Unless of course whatever it was pegged to loses value.
But when a currency is just a fiat one. Is called fraud. Just as with the kilogram example. As it grows and lowers based on when the currency is created. Lets say there are 100 units in the whole world. And you add another 100 units. Now you have 200 units representing the same resources. Congratulations. You have stolen half of everyone's wealth. Well at least as long as people accept your fiat money.

This also has a side effect, the debt is one that is relative. As is based on the faulty unit.

As long as countries have control of real resources. They will be fine. Unless of course you get someone having a monopoly on food or potable water.

== Warning Conspiracy Theory Ahead ==

Climate changers always attack CO2, even if charts show it to lag temperature increase (aka not the cause but the effect).  Why is that? Because the CO2 is needed for plants. Less CO2 = Less plant that can live in the wild. And more recently they are going for the earth worms. Which are needed for the soil. No earth worms. No plants. No plants, no food.

So imagine for a moment. You got GMO plants that you want to sell to a captive audience. This plants do not need as much CO2 as the wild plants, but the resulting plants have no seeds. Only you can produce the seed. Suddenly you got total control of the food supply on earth.  Is irrelevant what crimes you do as people will have no option but to buy from you.

Now imagine if you get governments to control the water supply, for the sake of the people of course or so they claim. That means you depend on government for your water.

Most people are confused by the illusion of money. When is control of real resources that they should worry about. As well as procuring the means to defend the resources.

Is all about power, not about money. Control the food and water supply and you control the world. Control fiat money and you only control it to the point that people are willing to accept your fiat money.

TimoVJL

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2019, 02:50:37 AM »
scenario: global warming, less areas to grow food, too much people, poor birth control.
what politics do about it ?
Trumps just of kiss the ass of the catholic church ?

Just like of that of old republics Jesus card ? like Georg Bush jr ?
 


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AW

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2019, 03:14:54 AM »
This thread is a real floccinaucinihilipilification:skrewy:

xanatose

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2019, 06:37:56 PM »
This thread is a real floccinaucinihilipilification:skrewy:
Thanks for a new word to learn.

"The act or habit of describing or regarding something as unimportant, of having no value or being worthless"

Is knowing what money is and how is humanity is being manipulated something worthless or just unimportant?

AW

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2019, 07:02:55 PM »
Is knowing what money is and how is humanity is being manipulated something worthless or just unimportant?
Nobody is able to predict what will happen with the Brexit novel in the next 2 days let alone predict what will happen with extremely complex systems (remember the chaos theory and the butterfly wings effect?)
Predicting the future is basically a fool’s errand, and every plan shall have several contingency plans because the only certitude is that the main plan will go wrong.   :badgrin:



xanatose

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2019, 07:00:23 PM »
Predicting the future is basically a fool’s errand, and every plan shall have several contingency plans because the only certitude is that the main plan will go wrong.   :badgrin:
So I guess you should not look where you are driving because you cannot predict if a motorcycle will not be coming from where you where not looking.
You cannot predict a 100% but you can certainly predict 85%.

In the case of Brexit. The only thing that would happen is that UK and the EU would have to make new trade deals. Which would be trivially easy given that their Royalty are the #1 land owner of the world. So not really a big deal. Of course is possible that the Allahu Ackbar take over France and create a nuclear situation, but that would fall on the unpredictable 15%.

One thing I can predict. Each and every one of us will die. What I cannot predict is when.

AW

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Re: The next global economic crisis
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2019, 08:24:43 PM »
Better I look where I am driving because I "can not" predict what other drivers will do.  :rolleyes:

I can not predict what will happen with the UK after Brexit, but I believe it will be a complete chaos - the queen will resign and all lords and peers will have to work for a living - this is just a belief not a prediction, they may find a way out but I feel it is unlikely.  :biggrin:
They will have to make a trade deal with Germany to import BMW and Mercedes spare parts and with Trump to import the chlorinated chicken and weapons. I am not seeing anything the EU or US will need to import from them, it is basically a services economy with services now migrating to other countries.